Total Virus Tests (daily) 873,498Positive tests (daily) 42,776Mortalities: 161,798UK Deaths (daily) 136People vaccinated- 1st dose 49,252,939 (as of 13 October 2021)- 2nd dose 45,239,759Worcestershire cases63,601Worcestershire deaths857Wyre Forest cases10,917Worcester City cases11,106Wolverhampton cases 39,518Sandwell cases53,082Dudley cases45,090Birmingham cases164,786The Acute Hospital Trust covers Worcestershire Royal Hospital, Evesham Community Hospital as well as the Alexandra Hospital in Redditch and Kidderminster Hospital.
‘Get the Point ?’1.The teenage booster, also known as the 3-in-1 or the Td/IPV vaccine, is given to boost protection against 3 separate diseases: tetanus, diphtheria and polio.It's a single injection given into the muscle of the upper arm.2.This autumn all young people under 17 years of age have been offered a first dose of Covid vaccine, starting with those aged 12 to 15 years.Those living with someone who is immuno-suppressed have been offered 2 doses of the vaccine.
A member of the Government's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has warned that ..“Forcing NHS staff to get the Covid vaccine would be an "admission of failure".ThiscomesatthestartoftheGovernment’ssix-weekconsultationonplanstomakeCovid-19andfluvaccinations mandatory for front-line health and care staff.Some hospitals seeing uptake among staff hovering just over 50 per cent. “Forcing vaccines into the arms of doctors and nurses is not the answer .. .. it could even add to the anti-vaccine sentiment,“ said Professor Adam FinnThestrengthofthe Anti-VaxmovementcanbejudgedbywarningsfromtheItalianpolicethatanti-vaccinecampaigners calledforarmedattacksduringplannedproteststhisweekend.Eightpeople,whocallthemselves"thewarriors"onthe Telegrammessagingapp.arebeinginvestigatedbypoliceforincitementtocrimeandsearcheshavebeencarriedout in six provinces.Ontheotherhand,inatypicallyFrenchreactiontotheCovidcontroversy,theMoulinRougenight-spotisre-opening, following 18 months of closure … as this snap-shot of their (un)dress rehearsal shows ..
Let’s Try Some ‘Crystal-Ball’ Gazing ?
We can do no worse that ‘SAGE’
Why has modelling so overestimated the key metric of hospitalisations ?Septemberhasnotbeenagoodmonthforthemodellersof‘SAGE’withpredictionshastenedforwardto“coincide”withthePrimeMinister announcing his winter plan recently.“Pressure on the NHS would continue to build, with hospitalisations likely to top 7,000 admissions a day by mid-October! they say.Infact,forasecondmonthrunning,Sars-Cov-2hasconfoundedthemodellers,andhospitaladmissionsneverreallytookoffin September, bumping along a plateau of around 600 a day. In recent days, they have started falling.“EssentiallyflatsinceJuly19althoughahintofadownwardtrendmorerecently”,concededGrahamMedley,professorofinfectiousdisease modelling and chair of SPI-M, in a social media update last week. “Long may it continue”.Nevertheless, it is worth considering what they admit are“neither forecasts nor predictions” .. why don’t things go according to plan ?Itislargelyhumanbehaviourthatkeepscatchingthemodellersout,makingassumptionsaboutwhatwemightdoandhowmany“contacts” between us that entails, but if we fail to behave as expected the projections are badly thrown out.WhenthePrimeMinisterannouncedFreedomDayinmidJuly,assumptionsweremadeaboutthespeedatwhichpeoplewouldreturntotheir pre-pandemic levels of mixing and the models appear to have overestimated our rush for freedom.“Theoverallreportedcontactrateforadultsissimilartolevelsseenoverthelastmonth”,saysthelatestiterationoftheGovernment’sCoMix survey, which tracks the nation’s behaviour. Then there’s the link between cases and hospitalisations. In recent weeks hospitalisations have been coming down even as cases have climbed; called the “lag effect”.“Caseshaverisenpredominantlyinyounger(school-age)groups,whichdon'timpactdirectlyonthehospitalisationstatstoanygreatextent. And while there has been some spread into parent age-groups, to date this has been limited in size and scope.” IndependentModellerJamesWard–amanwithabettertrackrecordthanmost–recentlyupdatedhisprojectionsforthewintermonthsandit seemslikelythathospitalisationswillcontinuetobouncearoundtheircurrentlevelsbeforedippingaheadofChristmasandthenreboundingin the spring to around 1,000 a day as the impact of vaccines fade.Ifjabswanemoreslowly,thepredictedspringresurgenceiskeptlower;but,ifmixingreturnsmorequicklytoitspre-pandemicnorm, hospitalisations spike at almost 2,000 a day after Christmas. “There’sstillasmallriskwegetabigpeak–mostlikelyintheFirstQuarterof2022–thatwouldhaveusreachingfortheGovernment's‘Plan B’ of mild restrictions. But my best bet is that won’t be necessary”.